Market Update
Asian markets fell as commodity producers dropped after commodity prices declined and amid concern
China’s tight monetary policies will limit growth. China’s purchasing managers’ index rose to 51 in
February from 50.5 the previous month, said China’s statistics bureau and logistics federation. Nikkei
shares average gained, boosted by an unexpected jump in 4Q capital expenditure by Japanese
companies, while the softening yen and the European Central Bank’s liquidity move underpinned
sentiment.
Australian shares are lower this afternoon as falls in metal prices on material stocks and US Federal
Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke’s address to Congress dampens sentiment.
FBMKLCI up 4.73pts to 1574.38 at midday, lifted up by heavyweight Sime Darby despite cautious start
following losses from MAS and Proton. Gainers trailed losers, 269 to 411, while 315 counters traded unchanged. There are 853.2m shares changed hands valued at RM924.8m.
Wednesday 29 February 2012
Stock Overview - TRC - 1 Mar 2012
TRC ( 5054 : 0.71 ) : Targeting 0.77
Description
Resistance : 0.77
Support : 0.69
RSI of 41
RSI is steady
STOCHASTIC
It is oversold
TREND INDICATOR
Down
Comment
Currently it is hovering around 0.70. With oversold technicals, it is due for a technical rebound
Trading Strategy
Buy. Stop loss is at 0.69
Source:Jupiter Securities Research 1 March 2012
Description
Resistance : 0.77
Support : 0.69
RSI of 41
RSI is steady
STOCHASTIC
It is oversold
TREND INDICATOR
Down
Comment
Currently it is hovering around 0.70. With oversold technicals, it is due for a technical rebound
Trading Strategy
Buy. Stop loss is at 0.69
Source:Jupiter Securities Research 1 March 2012
Stock Overview - RSAWIT - 1 Mar 2012
RSAWIT ( 5113 : 1.12 ) : Targeting 1.30
Description
CPO
Resistance : 1.30
Support : 1.09
RSI of 62
RSI is on the rise
STOCHASTIC
It is recovering from its oversold level
TREND INDICATOR
Down
Comment
The upkick yesterday, is heading for 1.30. A tight stop loss should be placed at 1.09
Trading Strategy
Buy. Stop loss is at 1.09
Source:Jupiter Securities Research 1 March 2012
Description
CPO
Resistance : 1.30
Support : 1.09
RSI of 62
RSI is on the rise
STOCHASTIC
It is recovering from its oversold level
TREND INDICATOR
Down
Comment
The upkick yesterday, is heading for 1.30. A tight stop loss should be placed at 1.09
Trading Strategy
Buy. Stop loss is at 1.09
Source:Jupiter Securities Research 1 March 2012
Stock Overview - NAGAMAS - 1 Mar 2012
NAGAMAS ( 8923 : 0.74 ) : Targeting 0.81
Description
Resistance : 0.81 0.86
Support : 0.71
RSI of 65
RSI is steady
STOCHASTIC
It is oversold
TREND INDICATOR
Sideways
Comment
The upkick yesterday, is targeting 0.81
Trading Strategy
Buy. Stop loss is at 0.71
Source:Jupiter Securities Research 1 March 2012
Description
Resistance : 0.81 0.86
Support : 0.71
RSI of 65
RSI is steady
STOCHASTIC
It is oversold
TREND INDICATOR
Sideways
Comment
The upkick yesterday, is targeting 0.81
Trading Strategy
Buy. Stop loss is at 0.71
Source:Jupiter Securities Research 1 March 2012
Stock Overview - N2N - 1 Mar 2012
N2N ( 0108 : 0.48 ) : Stop loss 0.45
Description
IT services
Resistance : 0.50 0.68
Support : 0.45
RSI of 79
RSI is overbought
STOCHASTIC
It is on an up swing
TREND INDICATOR
Up
Comment
The upkicks over the past days, is targeting 0.68. Stop loss should be placed at 0.45
Trading Strategy
Buy. Stop loss is at 0.45
Source:Jupiter Securities Research 1 March 2012
Description
IT services
Resistance : 0.50 0.68
Support : 0.45
RSI of 79
RSI is overbought
STOCHASTIC
It is on an up swing
TREND INDICATOR
Up
Comment
The upkicks over the past days, is targeting 0.68. Stop loss should be placed at 0.45
Trading Strategy
Buy. Stop loss is at 0.45
Source:Jupiter Securities Research 1 March 2012
YOUR MORNING COFFEE – Thursday 1/3/2012
SUMMARY
· Wall St closed 0.4% lower. US 4Q’2011 GDP grew 3%, above the 2.8% estimate. Chicago PMI rose to 64, higher than expected, indicating expanding anufacturing. US Fed Beige book, an anecdotal account of manufacturing activity, points to moderate expansion.
· Dow of 12,952, is targeting 13,279. Previous high is 14,198. Caution is on the key support 12,670, which will be negative if breached. RSI of 61, is showing early sign of weakness.
· Dollar Index is higher at 78.8. Resistance is at 80.0.
· Crude oil is higher at USD107.0. Support is at 103.0.
· Dollar yen is higher at 81.2 yen. Resistance is at 82.2.
· Euro/dollar is lower at 1.333. Support is at 1.316.
· Gold is lower at USD1705. Downside is at 1625.
· Shanghai closed lower at 2,428.
· Singapore STI closed higher at 2,984.
· Ringgit is firmer at 2.995. Resistance is at 2.96.
· S’pore ringgit is lower at 2.404. Support is at 2.370
· Malaysian market closed higher at 1569. On the Daily chart, it broke the 200 MA of 1501, indicating a further upward push to 1578. Support is at 1566. RSI of 66, is weakening. Today’s range is between 1566 and 1576.
· CPO April futures is lower at RM3259. Support is at 3023.
· Trading : RSAWIT ( 5113 : 1.13 ) : Targeting 1.30, TRC ( 5054 : 0.71 ) : Targeting 0.77, NAGAMAS ( 8923 : 0.74 ) : Targeting 0.81, N2N ( 0108 : 0.48 ) : top loss 0.45
Source:Jupiter Securities Research 1 March 2012
SUMMARY
· Wall St closed 0.4% lower. US 4Q’2011 GDP grew 3%, above the 2.8% estimate. Chicago PMI rose to 64, higher than expected, indicating expanding anufacturing. US Fed Beige book, an anecdotal account of manufacturing activity, points to moderate expansion.
· Dow of 12,952, is targeting 13,279. Previous high is 14,198. Caution is on the key support 12,670, which will be negative if breached. RSI of 61, is showing early sign of weakness.
· Dollar Index is higher at 78.8. Resistance is at 80.0.
· Crude oil is higher at USD107.0. Support is at 103.0.
· Dollar yen is higher at 81.2 yen. Resistance is at 82.2.
· Euro/dollar is lower at 1.333. Support is at 1.316.
· Gold is lower at USD1705. Downside is at 1625.
· Shanghai closed lower at 2,428.
· Singapore STI closed higher at 2,984.
· Ringgit is firmer at 2.995. Resistance is at 2.96.
· S’pore ringgit is lower at 2.404. Support is at 2.370
· Malaysian market closed higher at 1569. On the Daily chart, it broke the 200 MA of 1501, indicating a further upward push to 1578. Support is at 1566. RSI of 66, is weakening. Today’s range is between 1566 and 1576.
· CPO April futures is lower at RM3259. Support is at 3023.
· Trading : RSAWIT ( 5113 : 1.13 ) : Targeting 1.30, TRC ( 5054 : 0.71 ) : Targeting 0.77, NAGAMAS ( 8923 : 0.74 ) : Targeting 0.81, N2N ( 0108 : 0.48 ) : top loss 0.45
Source:Jupiter Securities Research 1 March 2012
Tuesday 28 February 2012
Result Note - KFIMA - 29 Feb 2012
KUMPULAN FIMA BERHAD
3Q FY2012 Results Notes
9MFY12 results within expectation. Kumpulan Fima Bhd (KFIMA)’s 9M FY2012 results were within our expectations. Net profit of RM55.9m accounted for about 73% of our full year target while its revenue of RM363.5m clocked in at 73% of our estimates. The 9-month PBT up 2% to RM114.0m, on the back of an 11% increase in revenue. Profitability improved across all business segments (See Figure 2), with the exception of manufacturing division. Manufacturing division’s revenue dipped 2% to RM147.7m for the 9-month period under review and PBT contribution fell 25% to RM41.0m from RM54.6m. The lower earnings contribution from manufacturing division were mainly due to less favourable sales mix and recognition of RM3.05m on the fair value of equity-settled share options. Revenue from plantation division increased by 10% YoY to RM87.0m, thanks to higher commodity prices.
Food business was doing good, with revenue jumped 42% to RM69.9m while PBT contribution increased by more than one fold on higher sales volume and selling price for canned mackerel as well as foreign exchange gain. Bulking business was doing well, with revenue contribution increased by 17% to RM46.4m. The increase was mainly due to higher throughput recorded for oleochemical, edible oil and industrial chemical products.
On a QoQ basis, performances were generally lower on cyclical changes and a recognition of fair value of ESOS of RM8.44m. PBT was 26% lower compared to RM37.0m in 2QFY12. EPS for the quarter was 5.6sen, down from 6.44 in 2QFY12.
BUY maintained Overall performance was acceptable, with plantation, bulking and food businesses showing supporting growths. But we are expecting lower revenue from manufacturing division performance as it is experiencing volume changes due to cyclical demand for certain products. We continue to like KFIMA for its strong balance sheet and diversified businesses. Valuation wise, it is trading at a single digit PE of 6.7x with a dividend yield of 3.0%. We are maintaining our fair value of RM2.25 on KFIMA, pegging it at an average PE of 7x. BUY.
Source:Jupiter Securities Research 29 February 2012
3Q FY2012 Results Notes
9MFY12 results within expectation. Kumpulan Fima Bhd (KFIMA)’s 9M FY2012 results were within our expectations. Net profit of RM55.9m accounted for about 73% of our full year target while its revenue of RM363.5m clocked in at 73% of our estimates. The 9-month PBT up 2% to RM114.0m, on the back of an 11% increase in revenue. Profitability improved across all business segments (See Figure 2), with the exception of manufacturing division. Manufacturing division’s revenue dipped 2% to RM147.7m for the 9-month period under review and PBT contribution fell 25% to RM41.0m from RM54.6m. The lower earnings contribution from manufacturing division were mainly due to less favourable sales mix and recognition of RM3.05m on the fair value of equity-settled share options. Revenue from plantation division increased by 10% YoY to RM87.0m, thanks to higher commodity prices.
Food business was doing good, with revenue jumped 42% to RM69.9m while PBT contribution increased by more than one fold on higher sales volume and selling price for canned mackerel as well as foreign exchange gain. Bulking business was doing well, with revenue contribution increased by 17% to RM46.4m. The increase was mainly due to higher throughput recorded for oleochemical, edible oil and industrial chemical products.
On a QoQ basis, performances were generally lower on cyclical changes and a recognition of fair value of ESOS of RM8.44m. PBT was 26% lower compared to RM37.0m in 2QFY12. EPS for the quarter was 5.6sen, down from 6.44 in 2QFY12.
BUY maintained Overall performance was acceptable, with plantation, bulking and food businesses showing supporting growths. But we are expecting lower revenue from manufacturing division performance as it is experiencing volume changes due to cyclical demand for certain products. We continue to like KFIMA for its strong balance sheet and diversified businesses. Valuation wise, it is trading at a single digit PE of 6.7x with a dividend yield of 3.0%. We are maintaining our fair value of RM2.25 on KFIMA, pegging it at an average PE of 7x. BUY.
Source:Jupiter Securities Research 29 February 2012
Stock Overview - UEMLAND - 29 Feb 2012
UEMLAND ( 5148 : 2.20 ) : Take profit
Description
Resistance : 2.30
Support : 2.08
RSI of 56
RSI is weakening
STOCHASTIC
It is on a down swing
TREND INDICATOR
Down
Comment
The recent sell down from the 2.47 high is not over yet. It is likely to test a Double bottom at 2.07
Trading Strategy
Take profit
Source:Jupiter Securities Research 29 February 2012
Description
Resistance : 2.30
Support : 2.08
RSI of 56
RSI is weakening
STOCHASTIC
It is on a down swing
TREND INDICATOR
Down
Comment
The recent sell down from the 2.47 high is not over yet. It is likely to test a Double bottom at 2.07
Trading Strategy
Take profit
Source:Jupiter Securities Research 29 February 2012
Stock Overview - PREMIER - 29 Feb 2012
PREMIER ( 9458 : 0.425 ) : Targeting 0.51
Description
Food manufacturing
Resistance : 0.51
Support : 0.39
RSI of 56
RSI is neutral
STOCHASTIC
It is neutral
TREND INDICATOR
Down
Comment
The current consolidation is expected to resolve with an upside breakout, to target 0.51. A tight stop loss should be placed at 0.39
Trading Strategy
Buy. Stop loss is at 0.39
Source:Jupiter Securities Research 29 February 2012
Description
Food manufacturing
Resistance : 0.51
Support : 0.39
RSI of 56
RSI is neutral
STOCHASTIC
It is neutral
TREND INDICATOR
Down
Comment
The current consolidation is expected to resolve with an upside breakout, to target 0.51. A tight stop loss should be placed at 0.39
Trading Strategy
Buy. Stop loss is at 0.39
Source:Jupiter Securities Research 29 February 2012
Stock Overview - OPENSYS - 29 Feb 2012
OPENSYS ( 0040 : 0.13 ) : Targeting 0.17
Description
Application software
Resistance : 0.17
Support : 0.12
RSI of 42
RSI is oversold
STOCHASTIC
It is oversold and recovering
TREND INDICATOR
Down
Comment
Following the recent sharp sell down from the 0.22 high, a technical rebound is due. The 50% retracement level is at 0.17
Source:Jupiter Securities Research 29 February 2012
Description
Application software
Resistance : 0.17
Support : 0.12
RSI of 42
RSI is oversold
STOCHASTIC
It is oversold and recovering
TREND INDICATOR
Down
Comment
Following the recent sharp sell down from the 0.22 high, a technical rebound is due. The 50% retracement level is at 0.17
Source:Jupiter Securities Research 29 February 2012
IFCAMSC ( 0023 : 0.13 ) : Targeting 0.20
Description
Application software
Resistance : 0.20 0.24
Support : 0.10 0.12
RSI of 72
RSI is overbought
STOCHASTIC
It is overbought
TREND INDICATOR
Up
Comment
The recent rebound is heading for 0.20, with a support at 0.12. Stop loss should be placed at the price gap of 0.10
Trading Strategy
Buy. Stop loss is at 0.10
Source:Jupiter Securities Research 29 February 2012
Description
Application software
Resistance : 0.20 0.24
Support : 0.10 0.12
RSI of 72
RSI is overbought
STOCHASTIC
It is overbought
TREND INDICATOR
Up
Comment
The recent rebound is heading for 0.20, with a support at 0.12. Stop loss should be placed at the price gap of 0.10
Trading Strategy
Buy. Stop loss is at 0.10
Source:Jupiter Securities Research 29 February 2012
Morning Coffee - 29 Feb 2012
OUR MORNING COFFEE – Wednesday 29/2/2012
SUMMARY
· Wall St closed 0.2% higher, comforted by a small dip in oil price, and a 1 year high in consumer confidence index of 70.8. However, durable goods slumped 4% in January.
· Dow of 13,005, is targeting 13,279. Previous high is 14,198. Caution is on the key support 12,670, which will be negative if breached. RSI of 67, remains positive.
· Dollar Index is lower at 78.2. Support is at 77.9.
· Crude oil is lower at USD106.5. Support is at 103.0.
· Dollar yen is lower at 80.5 yen. Support is at 79.0.
· Euro/dollar is lower at 1.348. Resistance is at 1.354.
· Gold is higher at USD1786. Upside is capped at 1827.
· Shanghai closed higher at 2,451.
· Singapore STI closed higher at 2,965.
· Ringgit is firmer at 2.997. Resistance is at 2.96.
· S’pore ringgit is lower at 2.404. Support is at 2.370
· Malaysian market closed lower at 1556. On the Daily chart, it broke the 200 MA of 1501, indicating a further upward push to 1576. Support is at 1556. RSI of 58, is weakening. Today’s range is
between 1554 and 1564.
· CPO April futures is higher at RM3289. Support is at 3023.
· Trading : UEMLAND ( 5148 : 2.20 ) : Take profit, PREMIER ( 9458 : 0.425 ) : Targeting 0.51, OPENSYS ( 0040 : 0.13 ) : Targeting 0.17, IFCAMSC ( 0023 : 0.13 ) : Targeting 0.20
Source:Jupiter Securities Research 29 February 2012
SUMMARY
· Wall St closed 0.2% higher, comforted by a small dip in oil price, and a 1 year high in consumer confidence index of 70.8. However, durable goods slumped 4% in January.
· Dow of 13,005, is targeting 13,279. Previous high is 14,198. Caution is on the key support 12,670, which will be negative if breached. RSI of 67, remains positive.
· Dollar Index is lower at 78.2. Support is at 77.9.
· Crude oil is lower at USD106.5. Support is at 103.0.
· Dollar yen is lower at 80.5 yen. Support is at 79.0.
· Euro/dollar is lower at 1.348. Resistance is at 1.354.
· Gold is higher at USD1786. Upside is capped at 1827.
· Shanghai closed higher at 2,451.
· Singapore STI closed higher at 2,965.
· Ringgit is firmer at 2.997. Resistance is at 2.96.
· S’pore ringgit is lower at 2.404. Support is at 2.370
· Malaysian market closed lower at 1556. On the Daily chart, it broke the 200 MA of 1501, indicating a further upward push to 1576. Support is at 1556. RSI of 58, is weakening. Today’s range is
between 1554 and 1564.
· CPO April futures is higher at RM3289. Support is at 3023.
· Trading : UEMLAND ( 5148 : 2.20 ) : Take profit, PREMIER ( 9458 : 0.425 ) : Targeting 0.51, OPENSYS ( 0040 : 0.13 ) : Targeting 0.17, IFCAMSC ( 0023 : 0.13 ) : Targeting 0.20
Source:Jupiter Securities Research 29 February 2012
Briefing Note - POS - 28 Feb 2012
POS MALAYSIA BERHAD
Takeaways
FY10 result Pos Malaysia Bhd’s (POSM) FY11 revenue of RM1.17b made up 107% the estimated RM1.16b, whilst net profit of RM111.5m accounted for about 92% of full year target of RM121.6m. On a yearly basis, full year revenue of RM1.17b was 16% higher compared to RM1.02m recorded last year. Mail revenue increased by 21% to RM731.7m, thanks to the full year impact of tariff hike in FY11, despite been partly offset by a slight decrease in mail volume.
Higher expectation from holding company After DRB-Hicom took over Khazanah’s stake in POSM, the holding company has higher expectation on POSM. The management guided that they are looking at double-digit yearly growth for both topline and bottomline.
Drafting on phase 2 of transformation plan The first phase of transformation plan will be ended by end of 2012. The group is working on its phase 2 of transformation plan. Given that mail division generates about 70% of its total revenue, the group is looking at direct mail business to enhance its mail evenue contribution. Direct mail is a way of advertising in which advertiser mail printed advertisements or letters to large groups of consumers. Logistics wise, POSM already has its reach to homes nationwide, and it would be an advantage for the group to explore on this business. Going forward, the group is also planning to reduce its reliance on mail business and to direct itself into the “1-stop solution concept” business model. For its non-mail segment, the group is also looking at ways to capitalise on its existing network to distribute non-mail products. For example, the group is looking at distributing products for ultilevel- marketing companies. POSM is also looking ways to cutoperational cost. The group will work with Edaran Otomobil Nasional Bhd (EON, which is part of DRB-Hicom Group) to lease vehicle. For this year, the group will spend more on its ICT infrastructure investment to facilitate its operation and increase its efficiency.
Fair Value of RM3.06. Management indicates no change in its dividend policy of minimum 35% of distribution. Pos is enjoying a higher revenue stream with the implementation of its new tariff since mid of 2010. Going forward, the group will face challenges on how to grow its revenues from both mail and non-mail segments to keep up with the expectations from new holding company. We suggest a fair value of RM3.06 for POSM, pegging valuation at a PE of 13x, comparable with its close peers – Singapore Post Ltd listed in Singapore.
Source:Jupiter Securities Research 28 February 2012
Takeaways
FY10 result Pos Malaysia Bhd’s (POSM) FY11 revenue of RM1.17b made up 107% the estimated RM1.16b, whilst net profit of RM111.5m accounted for about 92% of full year target of RM121.6m. On a yearly basis, full year revenue of RM1.17b was 16% higher compared to RM1.02m recorded last year. Mail revenue increased by 21% to RM731.7m, thanks to the full year impact of tariff hike in FY11, despite been partly offset by a slight decrease in mail volume.
Higher expectation from holding company After DRB-Hicom took over Khazanah’s stake in POSM, the holding company has higher expectation on POSM. The management guided that they are looking at double-digit yearly growth for both topline and bottomline.
Drafting on phase 2 of transformation plan The first phase of transformation plan will be ended by end of 2012. The group is working on its phase 2 of transformation plan. Given that mail division generates about 70% of its total revenue, the group is looking at direct mail business to enhance its mail evenue contribution. Direct mail is a way of advertising in which advertiser mail printed advertisements or letters to large groups of consumers. Logistics wise, POSM already has its reach to homes nationwide, and it would be an advantage for the group to explore on this business. Going forward, the group is also planning to reduce its reliance on mail business and to direct itself into the “1-stop solution concept” business model. For its non-mail segment, the group is also looking at ways to capitalise on its existing network to distribute non-mail products. For example, the group is looking at distributing products for ultilevel- marketing companies. POSM is also looking ways to cutoperational cost. The group will work with Edaran Otomobil Nasional Bhd (EON, which is part of DRB-Hicom Group) to lease vehicle. For this year, the group will spend more on its ICT infrastructure investment to facilitate its operation and increase its efficiency.
Fair Value of RM3.06. Management indicates no change in its dividend policy of minimum 35% of distribution. Pos is enjoying a higher revenue stream with the implementation of its new tariff since mid of 2010. Going forward, the group will face challenges on how to grow its revenues from both mail and non-mail segments to keep up with the expectations from new holding company. We suggest a fair value of RM3.06 for POSM, pegging valuation at a PE of 13x, comparable with its close peers – Singapore Post Ltd listed in Singapore.
Source:Jupiter Securities Research 28 February 2012
Result Note - TDM - 28 Feb 2012
TDM BHD
4Q FY2011 Results
Within expectation TDM’s FY11 results were within our expectation. Net profit of RM156.85m clocked in at about 103% of our estimate while its revenue of RM503.23m accounted for about 98% of our full year target. For the full year under review, PBT jumped 67% to RM217.15m, on the back of 28% increase in revenue. Plantation division recorded a 73% increase in PBT in FY11, on higher average CPO and PK prices of RM3,237/MT (+22%YoY) and RM2,226/MT (+55%YoY) respectively. An increase in CPO and PK production by 11% and 8% respectively also contributed to the better earnings. Revenue contribution from the healthcare division rose by 16%, mainly due to an additional RM6m of revenue from the recently acquired TDMC Hospital Sdn Bhd and an 8% growth in revenue from the existing 3 hospitals. The discontinued division – food division also recorded profit of RM0.6m compared to loss of RM1.1m last year.
On a yearly basis, 4Q revenue of RM135.42m was 4% higher, whilst PBT rose 32% to RM65.0m. The better results were mainly due to a 10% growth in CPO and PK production coupled with higher commodity prices as well as additional revenue of RM2.4m from newly acquired hospital. On a QoQ basis, 4Q results were lower than 3Q results on seasonal factor for plantation division and lower commodity prices QoQ. PBT dipped 9% from RM71.0m while revenue was 11% lower. EPS was 13.86sen compared to 12.72sen in 1Q11.
New land for hospital TDM’s Kuala Terengganu Specialist Hospital, equipped with 33 beds, a 2-bedded ICU and 2 operating theatres, has reached its maximum capacity. The group has recently clinched a deal with Lembaga Tabung Amanah Warisan Negeri Terengganu to buy a piece of land for RM16.9m. The purchase will be fully funded via new share issuance at RM4.75 apiece. The land, measuring 23,424 sq meter, will be developed into an 8-storey special private hospital building with an estimated cost of RM187m. The new hospital is expected to complete in 2 years. The new hospital will be equipped with 130 beds, 5 operating theatres, a 12-bedded intensive care unit, and 1½ storey basement car park. Other facilities including polyclinics, in-patients beds and emergency services.
Recommendation
TDM stock of RM4.67 exceeded our previous target price. We are introducing our FY13 forecast with a higher target price of RM5.30, based on the two-stage DDM method. BUY recommendation maintained. Valuations remain attractive, with a cheap PER of 7.5-7.6x for FY12 and FY13, coupled with a decent dividend yield of 5.4-6.4%.
Source:Jupiter Securities Research 28 February 2012
4Q FY2011 Results
Within expectation TDM’s FY11 results were within our expectation. Net profit of RM156.85m clocked in at about 103% of our estimate while its revenue of RM503.23m accounted for about 98% of our full year target. For the full year under review, PBT jumped 67% to RM217.15m, on the back of 28% increase in revenue. Plantation division recorded a 73% increase in PBT in FY11, on higher average CPO and PK prices of RM3,237/MT (+22%YoY) and RM2,226/MT (+55%YoY) respectively. An increase in CPO and PK production by 11% and 8% respectively also contributed to the better earnings. Revenue contribution from the healthcare division rose by 16%, mainly due to an additional RM6m of revenue from the recently acquired TDMC Hospital Sdn Bhd and an 8% growth in revenue from the existing 3 hospitals. The discontinued division – food division also recorded profit of RM0.6m compared to loss of RM1.1m last year.
On a yearly basis, 4Q revenue of RM135.42m was 4% higher, whilst PBT rose 32% to RM65.0m. The better results were mainly due to a 10% growth in CPO and PK production coupled with higher commodity prices as well as additional revenue of RM2.4m from newly acquired hospital. On a QoQ basis, 4Q results were lower than 3Q results on seasonal factor for plantation division and lower commodity prices QoQ. PBT dipped 9% from RM71.0m while revenue was 11% lower. EPS was 13.86sen compared to 12.72sen in 1Q11.
New land for hospital TDM’s Kuala Terengganu Specialist Hospital, equipped with 33 beds, a 2-bedded ICU and 2 operating theatres, has reached its maximum capacity. The group has recently clinched a deal with Lembaga Tabung Amanah Warisan Negeri Terengganu to buy a piece of land for RM16.9m. The purchase will be fully funded via new share issuance at RM4.75 apiece. The land, measuring 23,424 sq meter, will be developed into an 8-storey special private hospital building with an estimated cost of RM187m. The new hospital is expected to complete in 2 years. The new hospital will be equipped with 130 beds, 5 operating theatres, a 12-bedded intensive care unit, and 1½ storey basement car park. Other facilities including polyclinics, in-patients beds and emergency services.
Recommendation
TDM stock of RM4.67 exceeded our previous target price. We are introducing our FY13 forecast with a higher target price of RM5.30, based on the two-stage DDM method. BUY recommendation maintained. Valuations remain attractive, with a cheap PER of 7.5-7.6x for FY12 and FY13, coupled with a decent dividend yield of 5.4-6.4%.
Source:Jupiter Securities Research 28 February 2012
Monday 27 February 2012
Overview - YTL - 28 Feb 2012
YTL ( 4677 : 1.52 ) : Stop loss 1.42
Description
Resistance : 1.72
Support : 1.42
RSI of 54
RSI is recovering
STOCHASTIC
It has started to turn upwards
TREND INDICATOR
Sideways
Comment
The recent recovery from its oversold position, indicates that it has bottomed out. It is likely to be heading up to 1.72. A tight stop loss should be placed at 1.42
Trading Strategy
Buy. Stop loss is at 1.42
Source:Jupiter Securities Research 28 February 2012
Description
Resistance : 1.72
Support : 1.42
RSI of 54
RSI is recovering
STOCHASTIC
It has started to turn upwards
TREND INDICATOR
Sideways
Comment
The recent recovery from its oversold position, indicates that it has bottomed out. It is likely to be heading up to 1.72. A tight stop loss should be placed at 1.42
Trading Strategy
Buy. Stop loss is at 1.42
Source:Jupiter Securities Research 28 February 2012
Stock Overview - HARVEST - 28 Feb 2012
HARVEST ( 9342 : 1.23 ) : Rebounding
Description
Resistance : 1.47
Support : 1.00 1.12
RSI of 54
RSI is recovering
STOCHASTIC
It has started to turn upwards
TREND INDICATOR
Sideways
Comment
The recent recovery from its oversold position, indicates that it has bottomed out. While a small pullback to 1.12 is possible, it is likely to be heading up to 1.47. A tight stop loss should be placed at 1.00
Trading Strategy
Buy. Stop loss is at 1.00
Source:Jupiter Securities Research 28 February 2012
Description
Resistance : 1.47
Support : 1.00 1.12
RSI of 54
RSI is recovering
STOCHASTIC
It has started to turn upwards
TREND INDICATOR
Sideways
Comment
The recent recovery from its oversold position, indicates that it has bottomed out. While a small pullback to 1.12 is possible, it is likely to be heading up to 1.47. A tight stop loss should be placed at 1.00
Trading Strategy
Buy. Stop loss is at 1.00
Source:Jupiter Securities Research 28 February 2012
Stock Overview - PENERGY - 28 Feb 2012
PENERGY ( 5133 : 1.24 ) : Targeting 1.45
Description
Oil and gas
Resistance : 1.45 1.57
Support : 1.17
RSI of 75
RSI is overbought
STOCHASTIC
It is on an upswing
TREND INDICATOR
Up
Comment
The recent sharp upkicks point to further upward push to 1.45, and possibly 1.57. A tight stop loss should be placed at 1.17
Trading Strategy
Buy. Stop loss is at 1.17
Source:Jupiter Securities Research 28 February 2012
Description
Oil and gas
Resistance : 1.45 1.57
Support : 1.17
RSI of 75
RSI is overbought
STOCHASTIC
It is on an upswing
TREND INDICATOR
Up
Comment
The recent sharp upkicks point to further upward push to 1.45, and possibly 1.57. A tight stop loss should be placed at 1.17
Trading Strategy
Buy. Stop loss is at 1.17
Source:Jupiter Securities Research 28 February 2012
Stock Overview - HWGB- 28 Feb 2012
HWGB ( 9601 : 0.40 ) : Rebounding
Description
Electrical components
Resistance : 0.44 0.54
Support : 0.38
RSI of 55
RSI is recovering
STOCHASTIC
It has started to turn upwards
TREND INDICATOR
Sideways
Comment
The recent recovery from its oversold position, indicates that it has bottomed out. If it manages to breach 0.44, the next level will be 0.54. A tight stop loss should be placed at 0.38
Trading Strategy
Buy. Stop loss is at 0.38
Source:Jupiter Securities Research 28 February 2012
Description
Electrical components
Resistance : 0.44 0.54
Support : 0.38
RSI of 55
RSI is recovering
STOCHASTIC
It has started to turn upwards
TREND INDICATOR
Sideways
Comment
The recent recovery from its oversold position, indicates that it has bottomed out. If it manages to breach 0.44, the next level will be 0.54. A tight stop loss should be placed at 0.38
Trading Strategy
Buy. Stop loss is at 0.38
Source:Jupiter Securities Research 28 February 2012
Daily Summary - 28 Feb 2012
YOUR MORNING COFFEE – Tuesday 28/2/2012
SUMMARY
· Wall St closed 0.01% lower, recovering off its earlier sell down, due to better housing figures. US pending home sales rose 2%, the highest since April 2010. Focus is on rising oil prices due to heightened tension with Iran.
· Dow of 12,981, is targeting 13,279. Previous high is 14,198. Caution is on the key support 12,670, which will be negative if breached. RSI of 66, remains positive.
· Dollar Index is lower at 78.5. Support is at 77.9.
· Crude oil is lower at USD108.5. Resistance is at 114.0.
· Dollar yen is lower at 80.5 yen. Resistance is at 81.7.
· Euro/dollar is lower at 1.340. Resistance is at 1.354.
· Gold is lower at USD1769. Upside is capped at 1827.
· Shanghai closed higher at 2,447.
· Singapore STI closed lower at 2,956.
· Ringgit is firmer at 3.011. It is due for a correction, with support at 3.110.
· S’pore ringgit is lower at 2.400. Support is at 2.370
· Malaysian market closed higher at 1559. On the Daily chart, it broke the 200 MA of 1501, indicating a further upward push to 1576. Support is at 1556. RSI of 61, has stabilised. Today’s range is between 1554 and 1564.
· CPO April futures is lower at RM3254. Support is at 3023.
· Trading : HARVEST ( 9342 : 1.23 ) : Rebounding YTL ( 4677 : 1.52 ) : Stop loss 1.42, HWGB ( 9601 : 0.40 ) : Rebounding, PENERGY ( 5133 : 1.24 ) : Targeting 1.45
Source:Jupiter Securities Research 28 February 2012
SUMMARY
· Wall St closed 0.01% lower, recovering off its earlier sell down, due to better housing figures. US pending home sales rose 2%, the highest since April 2010. Focus is on rising oil prices due to heightened tension with Iran.
· Dow of 12,981, is targeting 13,279. Previous high is 14,198. Caution is on the key support 12,670, which will be negative if breached. RSI of 66, remains positive.
· Dollar Index is lower at 78.5. Support is at 77.9.
· Crude oil is lower at USD108.5. Resistance is at 114.0.
· Dollar yen is lower at 80.5 yen. Resistance is at 81.7.
· Euro/dollar is lower at 1.340. Resistance is at 1.354.
· Gold is lower at USD1769. Upside is capped at 1827.
· Shanghai closed higher at 2,447.
· Singapore STI closed lower at 2,956.
· Ringgit is firmer at 3.011. It is due for a correction, with support at 3.110.
· S’pore ringgit is lower at 2.400. Support is at 2.370
· Malaysian market closed higher at 1559. On the Daily chart, it broke the 200 MA of 1501, indicating a further upward push to 1576. Support is at 1556. RSI of 61, has stabilised. Today’s range is between 1554 and 1564.
· CPO April futures is lower at RM3254. Support is at 3023.
· Trading : HARVEST ( 9342 : 1.23 ) : Rebounding YTL ( 4677 : 1.52 ) : Stop loss 1.42, HWGB ( 9601 : 0.40 ) : Rebounding, PENERGY ( 5133 : 1.24 ) : Targeting 1.45
Source:Jupiter Securities Research 28 February 2012
Result Note - Eng Kah - 27 Feb 2012
ENG KAH CORPORATION BERHAD
4QFY11 Results
FY2011 result within expectation Eng Kah Corporation (EKC)‘s FY11 results were within our estimates. Net profit of RM13.3m accounted for about 103% of our full year target whilst its revenue of RM95.6m clocked in for about 99% of our projection. The group reported a 10% increase in net profit despite a relatively flat full year revenue of RM95.6m, thanks to the change of product mix that is able to generate better margin as well as new products developed throughout the year and new customers secured in FY11.
On a yearly basis, 4Q revenue dipped 10% to RM25.0m. Net profit was also lower at RM2.5m. The
lower revenue was due to rescheduling of deliveries by some customers and stricter credit control policy implemented by the group. In addition, lower PBT margin of 11.8% compared to 15.4% in 4QFY10 was mainly due to additional cost incurred for product trial run and product testing as well as quality control for new product development. 4QFY11 revenue rose 13% QoQ on higher orders from new and existing customers. PBT was however lower at RM3.0m on higher R&D and marketing costs.
Higher than expected dividend The group proposed a final single-tier dividend of 7.5sen per share, which bring total dividend of 22.5sen, exceeded our forecast of 20sen per share for FY11. We view this as a positive surprise. Total dividend of 22.5sen represented an attractive dividend yield of 7.0%.
Fair value of RM4.04 We are introducing our FY13 forecast and keeping our BUY recommendation on Eng Kah with a higher fair value of RM4.04. We like Eng Kah on its strong position in the OEM industry for personal care and household products, sound fundamental (strong balance sheet and in net cash position) and attractive dividend payout.
Source:Jupiter Securities Research 27 February 2012
4QFY11 Results
FY2011 result within expectation Eng Kah Corporation (EKC)‘s FY11 results were within our estimates. Net profit of RM13.3m accounted for about 103% of our full year target whilst its revenue of RM95.6m clocked in for about 99% of our projection. The group reported a 10% increase in net profit despite a relatively flat full year revenue of RM95.6m, thanks to the change of product mix that is able to generate better margin as well as new products developed throughout the year and new customers secured in FY11.
On a yearly basis, 4Q revenue dipped 10% to RM25.0m. Net profit was also lower at RM2.5m. The
lower revenue was due to rescheduling of deliveries by some customers and stricter credit control policy implemented by the group. In addition, lower PBT margin of 11.8% compared to 15.4% in 4QFY10 was mainly due to additional cost incurred for product trial run and product testing as well as quality control for new product development. 4QFY11 revenue rose 13% QoQ on higher orders from new and existing customers. PBT was however lower at RM3.0m on higher R&D and marketing costs.
Higher than expected dividend The group proposed a final single-tier dividend of 7.5sen per share, which bring total dividend of 22.5sen, exceeded our forecast of 20sen per share for FY11. We view this as a positive surprise. Total dividend of 22.5sen represented an attractive dividend yield of 7.0%.
Fair value of RM4.04 We are introducing our FY13 forecast and keeping our BUY recommendation on Eng Kah with a higher fair value of RM4.04. We like Eng Kah on its strong position in the OEM industry for personal care and household products, sound fundamental (strong balance sheet and in net cash position) and attractive dividend payout.
Source:Jupiter Securities Research 27 February 2012
Result Note - Chin Well - 27 Feb 2012
CHIN WELL HOLDINGS BERHAD
Highlights
Within expectations Chin Well’s 2QFY12 results were within our expectations. Revenue of RM265.4m clocked in at 48.9% of our full year target, net profit of RM33.3m came in at 48.6% of our full year estimation. 1HFY12’s PBT of RM50.5m increased by more than one fold from RM25.1m in 1HFY11. PBT margin of 19.0% was also higher than last year’s 10.4%. These were attributable to higher sales in its fastener products division to Europe and other Asian countries. Its fastener division recorded a 12.5% increase in revenue, largely due to higher production capacity usage of its Vietnam subsidiary.
On a yearly basis, 2Q revenue of RM131.1m was merely 2.8% higher but PBT of RM24.7% was 57.1% higher YoY compared to RM15.7m in the corresponding period last year. On a quarter-to-quarter basis, revenue was 2.4% lower compared to RM134.3m in 1QFY12. Net profit was marginally lower at RM16.5m. The lower earnings were due to lower sales from European market during the quarter. In our previous briefing update, we have mentioned that a lower 2QFY12 result was expected, due to seasonality cycle as Europe countries were entering winter and holiday season. We should see performance to pick up in 3Q.
Fair Value of RM2.10 Chin Well is one of the eight companies that are being exempted from the anti-dumping duties imposed by EU toward fasteners manufacturers in Malaysia. Germany, being the largest economy in Europe and the largest revenue contributor of Chin Well within Europe region, is one country that we are closely monitoring as a gauge of Chin Well’s prospect. In February 2012, German investor confidence surged to a 10-month high as global growth improved and Europe’s debt crisis show signs of abating. On a yearly basis, we have witnessed margin boost in 1HFY12 resulted from sustainable sales. Hence, we are maintaining our forecast on Chin Well and keeping our BUY recommendation on Chin Well with a fair value of RM2.10.
Source:Jupiter Securities Research 27 February 2012
Highlights
Within expectations Chin Well’s 2QFY12 results were within our expectations. Revenue of RM265.4m clocked in at 48.9% of our full year target, net profit of RM33.3m came in at 48.6% of our full year estimation. 1HFY12’s PBT of RM50.5m increased by more than one fold from RM25.1m in 1HFY11. PBT margin of 19.0% was also higher than last year’s 10.4%. These were attributable to higher sales in its fastener products division to Europe and other Asian countries. Its fastener division recorded a 12.5% increase in revenue, largely due to higher production capacity usage of its Vietnam subsidiary.
On a yearly basis, 2Q revenue of RM131.1m was merely 2.8% higher but PBT of RM24.7% was 57.1% higher YoY compared to RM15.7m in the corresponding period last year. On a quarter-to-quarter basis, revenue was 2.4% lower compared to RM134.3m in 1QFY12. Net profit was marginally lower at RM16.5m. The lower earnings were due to lower sales from European market during the quarter. In our previous briefing update, we have mentioned that a lower 2QFY12 result was expected, due to seasonality cycle as Europe countries were entering winter and holiday season. We should see performance to pick up in 3Q.
Fair Value of RM2.10 Chin Well is one of the eight companies that are being exempted from the anti-dumping duties imposed by EU toward fasteners manufacturers in Malaysia. Germany, being the largest economy in Europe and the largest revenue contributor of Chin Well within Europe region, is one country that we are closely monitoring as a gauge of Chin Well’s prospect. In February 2012, German investor confidence surged to a 10-month high as global growth improved and Europe’s debt crisis show signs of abating. On a yearly basis, we have witnessed margin boost in 1HFY12 resulted from sustainable sales. Hence, we are maintaining our forecast on Chin Well and keeping our BUY recommendation on Chin Well with a fair value of RM2.10.
Source:Jupiter Securities Research 27 February 2012
Sunday 26 February 2012
Result Note - Tomei - 24 Feb 2012
TOMEI CONSOLIDATED BERHAD
Highlights
Within expectations Tomei Consolidated Bhd (Tomei) FY11 results were within our expectations. Net profit of RM31.2m clocked in at 96% of our full year target whilst revenue of RM505.4m was 10% higher than our estimate. For the full year under review, revenue surged 42% YoY, while operating margin improved marginally from 10.4% a year ago to 10.7%. The better results were contributed by both manufacturing & wholesale and the retail segments on higher gold prices (Figure 2). Revenue contribution from manufacturing & wholesale sales jumped 53% from
RM74.4m to RM113.6m. PBT contribution soared 70% to RM8.3m from RM4.9m. Higher earnings in the manufacturing & wholesale segment was mainly due to higher sales volume to other jewellery retailers. Revenue contribution from the retail segment rose 39% to RM391.8m whilst PBT from retail segment rose 41% to
RM24.2m. Improved consumers spending in gold investment products and higher retail price in gold contributed to better results. The acquisition of the
‘Goldheart’ brand with 4 additional retail outlets also contributed positively to the group.
On a quarterly basis, 4Q revenue was relatively flat at
RM137.1m compared to previous quarter’s RM135.3m. PBT of RM10.7% was however 27% lower QoQ, impacted by fluctuation in gold prices. On a yearly basis, 4Q results
were generally better than the corresponding quarter of last year. Revenue surged 46% YoY and net profit rose 25% YoY to RM6.2m from RM5.0m a year ago.
Fair Value of RM1.10 Gold prices fluctuated and peaked at USD1,900.23/oz on 5 September 2011 before it fell to as low as USD1,545.97/oz on 29 December 2011. It then picked up to close to USD1,770/oz recently. Tomei is undervalued, compared to the gold price movements (Figure 1). We have introduced our FY13 forecast and are maintaining our BUY recommendation on Tomei with a fair
value of RM1.16.
Source:Jupiter Securities Research 24 Feb 2012
Highlights
Within expectations Tomei Consolidated Bhd (Tomei) FY11 results were within our expectations. Net profit of RM31.2m clocked in at 96% of our full year target whilst revenue of RM505.4m was 10% higher than our estimate. For the full year under review, revenue surged 42% YoY, while operating margin improved marginally from 10.4% a year ago to 10.7%. The better results were contributed by both manufacturing & wholesale and the retail segments on higher gold prices (Figure 2). Revenue contribution from manufacturing & wholesale sales jumped 53% from
RM74.4m to RM113.6m. PBT contribution soared 70% to RM8.3m from RM4.9m. Higher earnings in the manufacturing & wholesale segment was mainly due to higher sales volume to other jewellery retailers. Revenue contribution from the retail segment rose 39% to RM391.8m whilst PBT from retail segment rose 41% to
RM24.2m. Improved consumers spending in gold investment products and higher retail price in gold contributed to better results. The acquisition of the
‘Goldheart’ brand with 4 additional retail outlets also contributed positively to the group.
On a quarterly basis, 4Q revenue was relatively flat at
RM137.1m compared to previous quarter’s RM135.3m. PBT of RM10.7% was however 27% lower QoQ, impacted by fluctuation in gold prices. On a yearly basis, 4Q results
were generally better than the corresponding quarter of last year. Revenue surged 46% YoY and net profit rose 25% YoY to RM6.2m from RM5.0m a year ago.
Fair Value of RM1.10 Gold prices fluctuated and peaked at USD1,900.23/oz on 5 September 2011 before it fell to as low as USD1,545.97/oz on 29 December 2011. It then picked up to close to USD1,770/oz recently. Tomei is undervalued, compared to the gold price movements (Figure 1). We have introduced our FY13 forecast and are maintaining our BUY recommendation on Tomei with a fair
value of RM1.16.
Source:Jupiter Securities Research 24 Feb 2012
Result Note - IJM Plantations - 24 Feb 2012
IJM Plantations BHD
3Q FY12 Results
9MFY12 results above expectation IJMP’s 9MFY12 results were above our expectations. 9-month PBT of RM200.8m accounted for about 92% of our full year target whilst revenue of RM355.7m accounted for about 78% of our full year estimate. For the 9-month period under review, revenue rose 12% while net profit was up by 24% to RM150.2m on better commodity prices and higher FFB production. The average CPO price was RM3,027/MTcompared to RM2,671/MT and the average PKO price increased from RM3,855/MT to RM4,134/MT. FFB production was 12% higher on a recovery from palm yield stress in the previous financial year. Indonesian estates had contributed about RM7.6m in revenue to its 9M results. FFB production of 16,367MT was only accounted for about 3% of its total FFB production. Its Indonesian operations are still under the planting development stage, hence, contribution is insignificant compared to Sabah operations. The group had previously expressed its intention to invest RM1b in its oil palm plantations in Indonesia during 2012-2014 period. To date, the group has planted over 13,600ha in Indonesia. The Indonesian operations will contribute meaningfully by 2014. 3QFY12 revenue of RM146.4m was 9% higher YoY but 19% lower QoQ. The lower QoQ revenue was due to lower sales volume for CPO and PKO as well as lower commodity prices. Nevertheless, operating margin of 48.9% was higher compared to 34.8% in 2Q.
Recommendation
We have tweaked our forecast on its better YTD results. Based on a forward PE of 14x, our derived fair value is RM3.80. HOLD
Source:Jupiter Securities Research 24 Feb 2012
3Q FY12 Results
9MFY12 results above expectation IJMP’s 9MFY12 results were above our expectations. 9-month PBT of RM200.8m accounted for about 92% of our full year target whilst revenue of RM355.7m accounted for about 78% of our full year estimate. For the 9-month period under review, revenue rose 12% while net profit was up by 24% to RM150.2m on better commodity prices and higher FFB production. The average CPO price was RM3,027/MTcompared to RM2,671/MT and the average PKO price increased from RM3,855/MT to RM4,134/MT. FFB production was 12% higher on a recovery from palm yield stress in the previous financial year. Indonesian estates had contributed about RM7.6m in revenue to its 9M results. FFB production of 16,367MT was only accounted for about 3% of its total FFB production. Its Indonesian operations are still under the planting development stage, hence, contribution is insignificant compared to Sabah operations. The group had previously expressed its intention to invest RM1b in its oil palm plantations in Indonesia during 2012-2014 period. To date, the group has planted over 13,600ha in Indonesia. The Indonesian operations will contribute meaningfully by 2014. 3QFY12 revenue of RM146.4m was 9% higher YoY but 19% lower QoQ. The lower QoQ revenue was due to lower sales volume for CPO and PKO as well as lower commodity prices. Nevertheless, operating margin of 48.9% was higher compared to 34.8% in 2Q.
Recommendation
We have tweaked our forecast on its better YTD results. Based on a forward PE of 14x, our derived fair value is RM3.80. HOLD
Source:Jupiter Securities Research 24 Feb 2012
Result Note - KLK - 24 Feb 2012
KUALA LUMPUR KEPONG BHD
1Q FY2012 Results
Within expectations KLK’s 1QFY12 results were within
consensus and our expectations. Revenue of RM2.923b
made up of 28% of our forecast while net profit of RM341.0m
was 23% of our full year target. During the quarter under
review, revenue rose 21% YoY whilst PBT was up by 18%to
RM463.2m. The higher YoY profit was mainly contributed by a
24.5% growth in the plantation division’s profit on higher
commodity prices, higher FFB production and improvement
from refinery operations that yielded better margins. In
addition, a lower FRS 139 fair value loss of RM2.3m,
compared to a loss of RM45.1m also contributed to the higher
earnings. PBT margin of 15.8% was however lower than
16.2% in corresponding quarter of last year.
The Oleochemical division managed to record a 21% growth
in revenue to RM1.28b. Nevertheless, the division reported a
lower profit of RM3.9m (1QFY11: profit of RM23.1m) on
increased raw material costs and lower margins due to tough
competition in the export market. Indonesia had lowered its
export duty structure, which conferred on its oleochemical
producers an advantage of 15% lower raw material costs. In
our plantation sector update reports, we had foreseen KLK’s
oleochemical operation would be hurt by the Indonesian
government’s move in lowering export duties. We expect the
division to continue to suffer from high raw material costs as
CPO prices trended upwards and as Malaysian downstream
players faced stiff competition from rivals in Indonesia unless
the Malaysian government moves to boost the landscape in
export markets.
On a quarterly basis, 1Q revenue was 2.5% lower. Net margin
at 11.7% was also lower than 4QFY2011’s 15.4%. This is due
to lower contribution from both key revenue generators – the
plantation and oleochemical divisions. Plantation profits
dipped on softer commodity prices. Manufacturing division
revenues fell by 14.5% on weaker demand. Nevertheless, the
first quarter was also a seasonally low period as customers
were trying to keep stock levels low at the calendar yearend.
Recommendation
We expect the plantation division to continue with its good
performance in FY12, riding on high commodity prices. Its
oleochemical division’s performance has been adversely
affected by Indonesia’s export duty structure. Nevertheless,
as KLK also owns Indonesian plantations, we anticipate its
oleochemical plant in Indonesia to benefit from the impact of
the differential in export duties. We are keeping our HOLD
recommendation with our fair value unchanged at RM23.72.
Source:Jupiter Securities Research 24 Feb 2012
1Q FY2012 Results
Within expectations KLK’s 1QFY12 results were within
consensus and our expectations. Revenue of RM2.923b
made up of 28% of our forecast while net profit of RM341.0m
was 23% of our full year target. During the quarter under
review, revenue rose 21% YoY whilst PBT was up by 18%to
RM463.2m. The higher YoY profit was mainly contributed by a
24.5% growth in the plantation division’s profit on higher
commodity prices, higher FFB production and improvement
from refinery operations that yielded better margins. In
addition, a lower FRS 139 fair value loss of RM2.3m,
compared to a loss of RM45.1m also contributed to the higher
earnings. PBT margin of 15.8% was however lower than
16.2% in corresponding quarter of last year.
The Oleochemical division managed to record a 21% growth
in revenue to RM1.28b. Nevertheless, the division reported a
lower profit of RM3.9m (1QFY11: profit of RM23.1m) on
increased raw material costs and lower margins due to tough
competition in the export market. Indonesia had lowered its
export duty structure, which conferred on its oleochemical
producers an advantage of 15% lower raw material costs. In
our plantation sector update reports, we had foreseen KLK’s
oleochemical operation would be hurt by the Indonesian
government’s move in lowering export duties. We expect the
division to continue to suffer from high raw material costs as
CPO prices trended upwards and as Malaysian downstream
players faced stiff competition from rivals in Indonesia unless
the Malaysian government moves to boost the landscape in
export markets.
On a quarterly basis, 1Q revenue was 2.5% lower. Net margin
at 11.7% was also lower than 4QFY2011’s 15.4%. This is due
to lower contribution from both key revenue generators – the
plantation and oleochemical divisions. Plantation profits
dipped on softer commodity prices. Manufacturing division
revenues fell by 14.5% on weaker demand. Nevertheless, the
first quarter was also a seasonally low period as customers
were trying to keep stock levels low at the calendar yearend.
Recommendation
We expect the plantation division to continue with its good
performance in FY12, riding on high commodity prices. Its
oleochemical division’s performance has been adversely
affected by Indonesia’s export duty structure. Nevertheless,
as KLK also owns Indonesian plantations, we anticipate its
oleochemical plant in Indonesia to benefit from the impact of
the differential in export duties. We are keeping our HOLD
recommendation with our fair value unchanged at RM23.72.
Source:Jupiter Securities Research 24 Feb 2012
Result Note - TSH - 24 Feb 2012
4Q FY2011 Results
Within expectations. TSH’s FY11 results were in line
with consensus and our estimates. 12-month revenues at
RM1.148b made up of 96% of our full year target and PBT
of RM162.4m almost made up of our full year estimate.
For the full year under review, revenues grew 26% while
operating profit rose 46% to RM166.9m. EPS of 14.7sen
was lower than its previous year of 20.6sen on an
enlarged share capital after its 1:1 bonus issue. Overall,
higher earnings were attributable to higher CPO prices
and better FFB production on improved yield management
as well as higher mature acreages in Indonesia. During
the year, FFB production increased by 43% to 399,604MT.
The Wood products division continue to register a loss on
sluggish demand from US and Europe. The Cocoamanufacturing
division reported lower profits on lower
production and unfavourable cocoa butter prices.
On a QoQ basis, despite 7% higher revenues of
RM292.9m, the bottomline was lower than in 3Q on the
lower CPO prices following the trend in FFB production
cycle. PBT fell 36% to RM30.1m and net profits of
RM26.1m was 24% lower than last quarter’s RM34.5m.
The lower PBT was also due to provision of doubtful debts
in the wood products division.
Recommendation
We continue to view TSH with favour, as it can bank on
improvements in efficiency in plantation division and
higher crop production from its Indonesia estates. We are
introducing our 2013 projections. We applied a two-stage
DDM valuation model for TSH, as we expect high growth
in the coming years when more palms come into maturity
in Indonesia. We have tweaked our target price upwards
to RM2.88. BUY recommendation maintained.
Source:Jupiter Securities Research 24 Feb 2012
Within expectations. TSH’s FY11 results were in line
with consensus and our estimates. 12-month revenues at
RM1.148b made up of 96% of our full year target and PBT
of RM162.4m almost made up of our full year estimate.
For the full year under review, revenues grew 26% while
operating profit rose 46% to RM166.9m. EPS of 14.7sen
was lower than its previous year of 20.6sen on an
enlarged share capital after its 1:1 bonus issue. Overall,
higher earnings were attributable to higher CPO prices
and better FFB production on improved yield management
as well as higher mature acreages in Indonesia. During
the year, FFB production increased by 43% to 399,604MT.
The Wood products division continue to register a loss on
sluggish demand from US and Europe. The Cocoamanufacturing
division reported lower profits on lower
production and unfavourable cocoa butter prices.
On a QoQ basis, despite 7% higher revenues of
RM292.9m, the bottomline was lower than in 3Q on the
lower CPO prices following the trend in FFB production
cycle. PBT fell 36% to RM30.1m and net profits of
RM26.1m was 24% lower than last quarter’s RM34.5m.
The lower PBT was also due to provision of doubtful debts
in the wood products division.
Recommendation
We continue to view TSH with favour, as it can bank on
improvements in efficiency in plantation division and
higher crop production from its Indonesia estates. We are
introducing our 2013 projections. We applied a two-stage
DDM valuation model for TSH, as we expect high growth
in the coming years when more palms come into maturity
in Indonesia. We have tweaked our target price upwards
to RM2.88. BUY recommendation maintained.
Source:Jupiter Securities Research 24 Feb 2012
PUNCAK - 27 Feb 2012
PUNCAK ( 6807 : 1.42 ) : Targeting 1.68
Description
Resistance : 1.68
Support : 1.29 1.36
RSI of 47
RSI is weakening
STOCHASTIC
It is oversold
TREND INDICATOR
Down
Comment
The recent sell down from 1.89, has hit a support at 1.36, indicating a limited downside. It is likely to recover to the 61.8% of 1.68
Trading Strategy
Buy. Stop loss is at 1.29
Source:Jupiter Securities Research
Description
Resistance : 1.68
Support : 1.29 1.36
RSI of 47
RSI is weakening
STOCHASTIC
It is oversold
TREND INDICATOR
Down
Comment
The recent sell down from 1.89, has hit a support at 1.36, indicating a limited downside. It is likely to recover to the 61.8% of 1.68
Trading Strategy
Buy. Stop loss is at 1.29
Source:Jupiter Securities Research
UNISEM - 27 Feb 2012
UNISEM ( 5005 : 1.27 ) : Targeting 1.45
Description
Resistance : 1.45
Support : 1.24
RSI of 40
RSI is approaching oversold
STOCHASTIC
It is oversold
TREND INDICATOR
Down
Comment
The recent correction may have bottomed out at the 61.8% retracement of 1.24. A technical rebound to the 50% retracement level of 1.45 is likely
Trading Strategy
Buy. Stop loss is at 1.22
Source:Jupiter Securities Research
Description
Resistance : 1.45
Support : 1.24
RSI of 40
RSI is approaching oversold
STOCHASTIC
It is oversold
TREND INDICATOR
Down
Comment
The recent correction may have bottomed out at the 61.8% retracement of 1.24. A technical rebound to the 50% retracement level of 1.45 is likely
Trading Strategy
Buy. Stop loss is at 1.22
Source:Jupiter Securities Research
NICORP - 27 Feb 2012
NICORP ( 4464 : 0.52 ) : Targeting 0.61
Description
Property and timber
Resistance : 0.61 0.66
Support : 0.46
RSI of 65
RSI is on the rise
STOCHASTIC
It has just turned upwards
TREND INDICATOR
Down
Comment
The upkick Friday, is targeting 0.61, and possibly 0.66. A tight stop loss should be placed at 0.46
Trading Strategy
Buy. Stop loss is at 0.46
Source:Jupiter Securities Research
Description
Property and timber
Resistance : 0.61 0.66
Support : 0.46
RSI of 65
RSI is on the rise
STOCHASTIC
It has just turned upwards
TREND INDICATOR
Down
Comment
The upkick Friday, is targeting 0.61, and possibly 0.66. A tight stop loss should be placed at 0.46
Trading Strategy
Buy. Stop loss is at 0.46
Source:Jupiter Securities Research
MAS - 27 Feb 2012
MAS ( 3786 : 1.40 ) : Buy below 1.36
Description
Resistance : 1.44
Support : 1.26 1.36
RSI of 36
RSI is approaching oversold
STOCHASTIC
It is oversold
TREND INDICATOR
Down
Comment
The recent sell down from 1.74, is approaching oversold, indicating a limited downside. It should stabilize around 1.36
Trading Strategy
Buy below 1.36. Stop loss is at 1.26
Source:Jupiter Securities Research
Description
Resistance : 1.44
Support : 1.26 1.36
RSI of 36
RSI is approaching oversold
STOCHASTIC
It is oversold
TREND INDICATOR
Down
Comment
The recent sell down from 1.74, is approaching oversold, indicating a limited downside. It should stabilize around 1.36
Trading Strategy
Buy below 1.36. Stop loss is at 1.26
Source:Jupiter Securities Research
YOUR MORNING COFFEE – Monday 27/2/2012
YOUR MORNING COFFEE – Monday 27/2/2012
SUMMARY
· Wall St closed 0.01% lower. Consumer sentiment index rose to 75.3, higher than expected. However, housing remains troubling, as new home sales declined.
· Dow of 12,982, is targeting 13,279. Previous high is 14,198. Caution is on the key support 12,670, which will be negative if breached. RSI of 66, remains positive.
· Dollar Index is lower at 78.3. Support is at 77.9.
· Crude oil is higher at USD109.7. Resistance is at 114.0.
· Dollar yen is higher at 81.0 yen. Resistance is at 81.7.
· Euro/dollar is higher at 1.345. Resistance is at 1.354.
· Gold is lower at USD1766. Upside is capped at 1827.
· Shanghai closed higher at 2,439.
· Singapore STI closed higher at 2,974.
· Ringgit is firmer at 3.013. It is due for a correction, with support at 3.110.
· S’pore ringgit is lower at 2.400. Support is at 2.370
· Malaysian market closed higher at 1558. On the Daily chart, it broke the 200 MA of 1501, indicating a further upward push to 1576. Support is at 1556. RSI of 62, has stabilised. Today’s range is between 1554 and 1564.
· CPO April futures is lower at RM3238. Support is at 3023.
· Trading : MAS ( 3786 : 1.40 ) : Buy below 1.36, PUNCAK ( 6807 : 1.42 ) : Targeting 1.68, NICORP ( 4464 : 0.52 ) : Targeting 0.61, UNISEM ( 5005 : 1.27 ) : Targeting 1.45
Source:Jupiter Securities Research
SUMMARY
· Wall St closed 0.01% lower. Consumer sentiment index rose to 75.3, higher than expected. However, housing remains troubling, as new home sales declined.
· Dow of 12,982, is targeting 13,279. Previous high is 14,198. Caution is on the key support 12,670, which will be negative if breached. RSI of 66, remains positive.
· Dollar Index is lower at 78.3. Support is at 77.9.
· Crude oil is higher at USD109.7. Resistance is at 114.0.
· Dollar yen is higher at 81.0 yen. Resistance is at 81.7.
· Euro/dollar is higher at 1.345. Resistance is at 1.354.
· Gold is lower at USD1766. Upside is capped at 1827.
· Shanghai closed higher at 2,439.
· Singapore STI closed higher at 2,974.
· Ringgit is firmer at 3.013. It is due for a correction, with support at 3.110.
· S’pore ringgit is lower at 2.400. Support is at 2.370
· Malaysian market closed higher at 1558. On the Daily chart, it broke the 200 MA of 1501, indicating a further upward push to 1576. Support is at 1556. RSI of 62, has stabilised. Today’s range is between 1554 and 1564.
· CPO April futures is lower at RM3238. Support is at 3023.
· Trading : MAS ( 3786 : 1.40 ) : Buy below 1.36, PUNCAK ( 6807 : 1.42 ) : Targeting 1.68, NICORP ( 4464 : 0.52 ) : Targeting 0.61, UNISEM ( 5005 : 1.27 ) : Targeting 1.45
Source:Jupiter Securities Research
Thursday 23 February 2012
Daily Summary - 24 Feb 2012
YOUR MORNING COFFEE – Friday 24/2/2012
Brought to you by Jupiter Securities Research
SUMMARY
· Wall St closed 0.36% higher, following good jobs number, and thefourth month of rising German business conditions. The US weekly initial jobless claims rose to 351,000, better than expected.
· Dow of 12,984, is targeting 13,279. Previous high is 14,198. Cautionis on the key support 12,670, which will be negative if breached. RSI of 66, remains positive.
· Dollar Index is lower at 78.6. Support is at 77.9.
· Crude oil is higher at USD107.4. Resistance is at 114.0.
· Dollar yen is lower at 79.9 yen. Resistance is at 81.7.
· Euro/dollar is higher at 1.336. Resistance is at 1.354.
· Gold is higher at USD1786. Upside is capped at 1827.
· Shanghai closed higher at 2,409.
· Singapore STI closed lower at 2,965.
· Ringgit is firmer at 3.014. Downside is at 3.110.
· S’pore ringgit is lower at 2.408.
· Malaysian market closed lower at 1556. On the Daily chart, it broke the 200 MA of 1501, indicating a further upward push to 1576. Support is at 1556. RSI of 61, is weakening. Today’s range is between 1553 and 1563.
· CPO April futures is lower at RM3238. Support is at 3023.
· Trading : PADINI ( 7052 : 1.35 ) : Take profit
ORIENT ( 4006 : 6.32 ) : Targeting 6.47
UOADEV ( 5200 : 1.50 ) : Targeting 1.60
AIRASIA ( 5099 : 3.58 ) : Take profit
Source:Jupiter Securities Research 24 Febuary 2012
Brought to you by Jupiter Securities Research
SUMMARY
· Wall St closed 0.36% higher, following good jobs number, and thefourth month of rising German business conditions. The US weekly initial jobless claims rose to 351,000, better than expected.
· Dow of 12,984, is targeting 13,279. Previous high is 14,198. Cautionis on the key support 12,670, which will be negative if breached. RSI of 66, remains positive.
· Dollar Index is lower at 78.6. Support is at 77.9.
· Crude oil is higher at USD107.4. Resistance is at 114.0.
· Dollar yen is lower at 79.9 yen. Resistance is at 81.7.
· Euro/dollar is higher at 1.336. Resistance is at 1.354.
· Gold is higher at USD1786. Upside is capped at 1827.
· Shanghai closed higher at 2,409.
· Singapore STI closed lower at 2,965.
· Ringgit is firmer at 3.014. Downside is at 3.110.
· S’pore ringgit is lower at 2.408.
· Malaysian market closed lower at 1556. On the Daily chart, it broke the 200 MA of 1501, indicating a further upward push to 1576. Support is at 1556. RSI of 61, is weakening. Today’s range is between 1553 and 1563.
· CPO April futures is lower at RM3238. Support is at 3023.
· Trading : PADINI ( 7052 : 1.35 ) : Take profit
ORIENT ( 4006 : 6.32 ) : Targeting 6.47
UOADEV ( 5200 : 1.50 ) : Targeting 1.60
AIRASIA ( 5099 : 3.58 ) : Take profit
Source:Jupiter Securities Research 24 Febuary 2012
Stock Overview - AIRASIA - 24 Feb 2012
AIRASIA ( 5099 : 3.58 ) : Take profit
Description
Resistance : 3.74
Support : 3.34 3.54
RSI of 40
RSI is weakening
STOCHASTIC
It is weakening
TREND INDICATOR
Sideways
Comment
The small consolidation breakout will point to further downside, once the immediate support at 3.54 is
breached. The 50% retracement level is at 3.34
Trading Strategy
Take profit
Source:Jupiter Research 24 February 2012
Description
Resistance : 3.74
Support : 3.34 3.54
RSI of 40
RSI is weakening
STOCHASTIC
It is weakening
TREND INDICATOR
Sideways
Comment
The small consolidation breakout will point to further downside, once the immediate support at 3.54 is
breached. The 50% retracement level is at 3.34
Trading Strategy
Take profit
Source:Jupiter Research 24 February 2012
Stock Overview - ORIENT - 24 Feb 2012
ORIENT ( 4006 : 6.32 ) : Targeting 6.47
Description
Motor
Resistance : 6.47
Support : 5.80
RSI of 90
RSI is overbought
STOCHASTIC
It is overbought
TREND INDICATOR
Up
Comment
The recent upward push is eyeing 6.47
Trading Strategy
Buy. Stop loss is at 5.80
Source:Jupiter Research 24 February 2012
Description
Motor
Resistance : 6.47
Support : 5.80
RSI of 90
RSI is overbought
STOCHASTIC
It is overbought
TREND INDICATOR
Up
Comment
The recent upward push is eyeing 6.47
Trading Strategy
Buy. Stop loss is at 5.80
Source:Jupiter Research 24 February 2012
Stock Overview - PADINI - 24 Feb 2012
PADINI ( 7052 : 1.37 ) : Take profit
Resistance: 1.44
Support : 1.26 1.32
RSI of 70
RSI is overbought
STOCHASTIC
It is slightly positive
TREND INDICATOR
Sideways
Comment
The breakout yesterday is on a limited upside, due to some heavy resistance in the region of 1.44
Trading Strategy
Take profit
Resistance: 1.44
Support : 1.26 1.32
RSI of 70
RSI is overbought
STOCHASTIC
It is slightly positive
TREND INDICATOR
Sideways
Comment
The breakout yesterday is on a limited upside, due to some heavy resistance in the region of 1.44
Trading Strategy
Take profit
Stock Overview - UOADEV - 24 Feb 2012
UOADEV ( 5200 : 1.49 ) : Targeting 1.60
Resistance : 1.60
Support : 1.42
RSI of 54
RSI is on the rise
STOCHASTIC
It is recovering
TREND INDICATOR
Down
Comment
The upside breakout of its down trend, is targeting 1.60
Trading Strategy
Buy. Stop loss is at 1.42
Source: Jupiter Research
Resistance : 1.60
Support : 1.42
RSI of 54
RSI is on the rise
STOCHASTIC
It is recovering
TREND INDICATOR
Down
Comment
The upside breakout of its down trend, is targeting 1.60
Trading Strategy
Buy. Stop loss is at 1.42
Source: Jupiter Research
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